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华盛顿时报 美军出台报告:将中国列为头号潜在威胁
www.wforum.com | 2009-01-05 11:42:54  华盛顿时报 | 0条评论 | 查看/发表评论

  美国华盛顿时报军事专栏“五角圈内”1日对美国国防部联合司令部最近出台的《2008联合作战环境评价报告》进行了分析。文章称,报告揭示了北京政府沿从中东至中国的战略石油运输线路——所谓的“珍珠链”战略——建立政治影响力与军事力量的一些新细节,并将中国列为美国头号潜在威胁。

  文章称,联合司令部把中国的崛起看作是“自冷战体系瓦解之后,国际范围内最具影响力的一个个体事件”,并认为,中国之所以建造大量核潜艇,并逐渐增加其海军在世界范围内的存在,是出于“对美国海军有能力封锁中国石油进口路线的担忧——中国进口石油中有80%要通过马六甲海峡。”而且,联合司令部报告在提及马六甲海峡对中国的重要性时,还特别援引了一位中国海军战略家的话:“马六甲海峡,就像是呼吸之于生命那般重要。”

  文章称,联合司令部还在报告中分析了中国在石油运输沿线的政治影响力与军事存在,并对中国海军基地的发展、陆路补给线、商业港口设施以及中国在南海的两个军事基地等问题进行了分析。报告称,位于波斯湾口附近的巴基斯坦的瓜达尔港口就是中国的一个海军基地及监督设施。报告还指出,斯里兰卡的汉班托特市商运货物港口与永兴岛机场都是中国航运线路保护战略中的一部分。

  文章称,尽管中国政府坚称其军队是防御性部队,但是其卫星武器与网战能力的发展还是引起五角大楼官员们的注意。联合司令部在报告中表示:“未来25年里,中美关系将成为最重要的战略问题之一。不管两国间的关系最终会出现合作或强迫,或者两者兼而有之的结果,在联合部队司令官的考虑事项与战略定位中,中国都将变得日益重要起来。”

  文章称,中国驻美国大使馆发言人王宝东反击了美方的这一言论,他将那些认为中国拥有“珍珠链”战略的观点称作是“幻想”。王宝东说:“中国确实正在同一些亚洲国家在包括拓展港口等方面开展合作,不过,这对中国来说只是合法的贸易,并且联合资产也仅仅只用于商业目的。人们应该以更为明智且平衡的方式看待中国的行动。事实证明,中国的行动有助于共同利益及和平目标的实现,它不会对其他国家产生任何威胁。”

  最后,文章还特别指出,解放军正在研究美国的战略与军事思想,在2000年,有更多的中国军人从美国研究所毕业,这有助于中国了解美军的作战与战略。正如联合司令部在报告中所指出的那样:“作为一个未来潜在竞争者,中国将给美国带来最严重的威胁,因为与美国对中国的了解程度相比,中国更加了解美国与美国的实力和弱点。”

Inside the Ring
Bill Gertz INSIDE THE RING (Contact)
Thursday, January 1, 2009

China's pearls

A recently published U.S. military report identifies China as the most significant potential threat for the U.S. military in the future and discloses new details of what it describes as Beijing's efforts to build political influence and military power along the strategic oil-shipping route from the Middle East to China -- a so-called "string of pearls" strategy.

The report, "Joint Operating Environment 2008," was produced by the Norfolk-based U.S. Joint Forces Command. It lists China as the main emerging nation-state threat that U.S. forces could confront in a future conflict, along with potential threats from Russia, the Middle East and other places in Asia. It was made public Nov. 25.

Of China, the report states that its current emergence from isolation is "the most significant single event on the international horizon since the collapse of the Cold War." China's buildup of large numbers of nuclear submarines and an increasingly global navy reflects "worries that the U.S. Navy possesses the ability to shut down China's energy imports of oil -- 80 percent of which go through the straits of Malacca," the report said. It quotes a Chinese naval strategist as saying: "the straits of Malacca are akin to breathing itself -- to life itself." According to the report, 15 million barrels of oil transit each day through the Strait of Malacca, and 17 million barrels pass daily through the Strait of Hormuz. The report includes a graphic showing China's political influence and military presence near oil-shipping lanes. Among them are the development of naval bases, overland supply routes, commercial port facilities, a planned canal through Thailand and two military bases in the South China Sea.

New details contained in the report about Chinese efforts toward greater influence and military bases in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia updates the "string of pearls" strategy that was first reported by The Washington Times in 2005 based on a Pentagon report.

The report lists Pakistan's Gwadar port, near the mouth of the Persian Gulf, as a naval base and surveillance facility for China, and also lists the commercial-shipping container port at Hambantota, Sri Lanka, and the Woody Island airfield as part of the Chinese shipping-lane-protection strategy. The report stated that China's military was given "considerable autonomy" for its buildup by ruling Communist Party political leaders. It said that China "is not yet strong enough militarily, and needs to become stronger over the long term." Chinese leaders' internal debate, however, is not settled on the question of whether military forces should be offensive or defensive, or should emphasize continental or maritime forces, or a mix of the two, the report said.

China's government insists its forces are defensive in nature, but the development of satellite weapons and cyberwarfare capabilities have raised concerns among Pentagon planners.

"The Sino-American relationship represents one of the great strategic question marks of the next twenty-five years," the report said. "Regardless of the outcome - cooperative or coercive, or both - China will become increasingly important in the considerations and strategic perceptions of joint force commanders," the report said.

Chinese Embassy spokesman Wang Baodong called the idea of China having a "string of pearls" strategy a "fantasy." "It's true that China is conducting cooperation with some Asian countries in various fields including ports developing, but it's justifiable business for China and the joint ventures are for commercial purposes only," Mr. Wang said. "People should see China's activities with a sensible and more balanced approach. As facts have proven, China's activities are for mutual benefit and peaceful purposes, constituting no threat to anyone else."

The report said the Chinese are studying the strategic and military thinking of the United States and in 2000 had more Chinese military students in U.S. graduate schools than the U.S. military, a practice that has helped China learn U.S. military war-fighting and strategy.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/01/inside-the-ring-84163751/

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